Clashes and crystal ball-gazing

For years there has been loose talk about a "clash of civilizations" but I think the reality is at one level simpler, at another more complex. The chronic conflict in the Darfur region of western Sudan is ultimately a territorial dispute between pastoralists and nomads for shrinking fresh water resources; the chronic conflict in the Eastern Congo is a struggle among warlords for control of rich but scarce natural resources.  I believe all the intractable festering low level armed conflicts that collectively have killed tens of millions and maimed score of millions in the last 50 years aren't so much based in religious or ethnic differences as in a struggle for survival in a world where too many people seek their share of declining essentials to sustain their lives. I'm sure this is true of the latest outbreak in Mali that's worrying the French and the Americans, and no doubt our leaders in Canada. What's really happening is that the human swarm is running out of essentials for survival in zones of scarcity all over the world. The struggles are most overt in Africa but seem likely to flare up in the Middle East and south central Asia any day. In a facile way these struggles can be related to religious or ethnic differences or to the level of development in different regions. Put more harshly, humans who were always more predatory and parasitic than other species in the biosphere have become rather like a cancer on the surface of the earth. We are destroying life supporting ecosystems, and in the near future more of us everywhere may be forced to fight for a sufficient share in order to survive. I first ventured into print with thoughts along these lines in 1949 when I was a 23-year-old medical student a few months away from graduating. I wrote gloomily about population pressure, war, famine, reduced genetic diversity, deteriorating moral and ethical standards - I was a cheerful young chap, wasn't I? With more optimism than realism I suggested that a society led by members of the medical profession would be best equipped to deal with or prevent these dire outcomes. 

My gloomy predictions haven't come true yet. But I think Don Marquis's creation, archy the cockroach got it right:

         prophecies

the papers are full of the prophecies
of preachers professors and laymen 
to the effect that this human civilization
is on the way out
and it looks to an insect such as i
very possible
the only thing i wonder about
is why the human species call it a civilization 
human society has never been
as well organized as a hill of ants
or a hive of bees
and all the ancient sites of civilization
are now in the possession of insects
who are far superior in organization
and in their ethical practices
spiders bite the mummified feet 
of the pharaohs of egypt
and the kings of babylon are covered with fleas
which they are too defunct to feel

                      archy the cockroach

I'll say more about archy the cockroach and his best friend mehitabel the cat who is the reincarnated shade of Cleopatra in my next post.